PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia TbkFull report →1 / 14
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PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk

Indonesia's largest integrated poultry producer — feed, day-old chicks, broilers and processed chicken — closed FY2025 with record profit, then fell about a third from its January 2026 high as the market weighed whether that record can last.

From a $0.25 peak in early February 2026, the shares slid to $0.17 by mid-July — a de-rating against a record print, not a reported downturn.
$0.17
Share price
$2.8B
Market cap
$4.2B
FY2025 revenue
35%
Feed & DOC capacity share
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The statements

A record year sits on a cyclical base

FY2020 → FY2025as reported · Rp
RevenueRp70.7T+5%
Operating margin11.5%+2.6pp
Net incomeRp5.6T+52%
EPSRp344.00+52%
Free cash flowRp4.1T+15%
Open the full statements →
As-reported income statement and cash flow, FY2020–FY2025.
  • Growth, then a jump. Revenue compounded about 7.6% a year to $4.2B in FY2025, but net profit swung — from $0.25B in FY2021 down to a $0.15B trough in FY2023, then nearly tripling to a record $0.34B.
  • Margins trace the cycle. Operating margin fell from 9.5% in FY2021 to 5.9% in FY2023, then recovered to 11.5% in FY2025 — the profit line moves far more than the top line.
  • Earnings are cash. FY2025 operating cash flow of $0.35B roughly matched reported profit, and across FY2020–FY2025 cash covered 99% of earnings.
Valuation

8.9x looks cheap — until you read the denominator

P/E at $0.17 by earnings basis
Earnings basisEPS ($)P/E
Trailing (through Q1 2026)0.0247.5x
Record (FY2025)0.0218.9x
Margin-normalized0.01711.1x
Six-year average0.01313.7x
Trough (FY2023)0.00821.8x
Which earnings figure sits under the price sets the multiple; the mid-cycle rows are the honest anchor.
  • Peak denominator. At $0.169 CPIN trades at 8.9x record FY2025 EPS but about 14x its own ten-year-average EPS, and the record it is measured against was made entirely downstream — broiler result rose 64.9% to $201m while feed slipped to $230m — so the low multiple is a peak, downstream-driven denominator rather than a discount to normalized value.
  • The swing in dollars. On mid-cycle EPS of $0.013–0.017, a 12–13x multiple implies roughly $0.15–0.20; on the record $0.021 it implies $0.23+. At $0.17 the stock already sits inside the mid-cycle range, not beneath it.
  • The base may still be rising. Q1 2026 net profit of $0.15B ran about 67% above Q1 2025's $0.09B, so the trailing denominator is climbing rather than topping — the strongest fact against calling this a peak.
Feed & governance

The feed floor and the royalty bite together

Segment result: feed vs downstream ($M)
In the FY2023 trough the downstream lost money and feed carried the whole group; by FY2025 the downstream drove the record.
  • Both peak in the thin year. In the FY2023 trough feed earned $0.27bn — 104% of group segment result while the downstream lost $9m — and that same year the fixed CP-group brand royalty took $42m, 21.5% of pre-tax profit versus 9.3% at the FY2025 peak, so the feed floor and the royalty's bite peak together in the year profit is thinnest.
  • Feed is the shock absorber. Its result has held in a $0.20–0.27B band for six years with no loss year, so the downside it insures against is survivable — but in FY2025 it fell while the downstream drove the record.
  • The royalty is real, not just a transfer. At roughly 1% of sales it pays for the CP brand, breeding genetics and feed technology that underwrite the business — it lowers minority earning power modestly rather than resetting the case.
The business

Looks like a broiler company; earns like a feed miller

FY2025 external sales by segment
By reported revenue CPIN reads as a broiler business; the profit is made in the feed core and the downstream swing.
  • Indonesia's largest integrator. Founded in 1972, CPIN runs the widest chain in Indonesian protein — milling feed, hatching chicks, raising broilers and selling branded processed chicken — on 16.4 billion shares worth about $2.8B.
  • Revenue mix misleads. Fresh broiler is 48% of external sales and feed only 30%, yet feed is the steady earner while the price-taking downstream sets the swing in profit.
  • A controlled company. The Jiaravanon family's Charoen Pokphand group holds about 55.53%; public minorities own the rest and ride the family's capital-allocation choices.
The cycle

Profit swings far more than revenue

Operating margin, FY2021–FY2025
A trough in FY2023, a record in FY2025 — the arc the valuation debate is measured against.
  • A price-taker's cycle. Net profit fell three years running to a $0.15B trough in FY2023, then nearly tripled to $0.34B by FY2025 while revenue climbed steadily throughout.
  • The downstream is the amplitude. Broiler and processed margins price off an industry spread set by supply and live-bird prices, so they drive both the trough and the record; feed dampens the swing.
  • Conservative funding underneath. Equity funds about 74% of assets and bank debt is modest against cash, so the company absorbed a multi-year earnings trough without stress — and kept paying dividends.
Downstream

The record was made where CPIN controls least

Broiler segment result ($M)
Broiler swings from a $0.09B loss to a $0.20B profit across the cycle; feed's whole six-year range is $0.20–0.27B.
  • Efficiency, not price. In FY2025 the broiler result rose 64.9% to $201m even as the average live-bird selling price fell — birds were raised and processed more cheaply, a more durable source of profit than a price spike.
  • Three levers CPIN doesn't set. The live-bird price, an oversupplied industry the government manages by ordering culls, and demand now shaped by a state meals programme — all sit outside the company.
  • It has flooded before. The same broiler line lost money in FY2021–FY2023; market leadership means CPIN loses less and recovers faster, not that it escapes the spread.
Moat

Same industry, a record for the leader and a decline for #4

FY2025: CPIN vs Malindo (MAIN)
MeasureCPINMalindo
Net margin8.0%3.1%
Net profit, YoY+52%−19.3%
Feed capacity share35%8%
FY2025 net profit$0.34B$24M
The same feed inputs in the same market; scale and integration depth open the gap.
  • A four-firm oligopoly. Four integrators supply about 95% of Indonesian feed; CPIN leads at roughly 35% of capacity, close to twice the number two, and the ranking barely moves.
  • The edge shows in margins. An 8.0% net margin against Malindo's 3.1% — and in the very year CPIN set a record, the number-four's profit fell 19.3%. That gap is the return on scale, not a one-year mix.
  • Wide in feed, narrow downstream. The moat protects the feed-and-breeding base that never lost money FY2020–FY2025; it does not exempt the leader from a government-managed broiler spread.
Cash

Reported profit is real cash across the cycle

Operating cash flow vs net profit ($M)
Six-year operating cash flow covered 99% of profit; the timing is counter-cyclical, strongest when profit is weakest.
  • Earnings equal cash. From FY2020 to FY2025 operating cash flow of $1.4B covered 99% of $1.4B of owners' profit; in the record year cash flow of $0.35B slightly exceeded profit.
  • The mark is modest. The biological-asset fair-value gain — a poultry integrator's first accounting-quality question — was $28m, about 6% of pre-tax profit, checked by the auditor against real sales invoices.
  • A variable dividend. The payout tracks cash, not the earnings line: zero for FY2022, about 92% of profit in the FY2023 trough, and $0.011 a share on FY2025 — covered 1.4x by free cash flow.
2026 so far

The freshest data extended the record, upstream

$0.15B
Q1 2026 net profit+67% vs Q1 2025
+77.6%
Q1 day-old-chick salesrestocking; cycle tightening
+3.7%
Q1 broiler salesthe largest line barely grew
Q1 2026 growth concentrated upstream — day-old chicks and feed — not in the finished bird.
  • Up, not reverting. Q1 2026 net profit reached $0.15B, up about 67% on higher chicken prices and volume — a business printing above the record it just set, though the quarter carries a seasonal Ramadan lift.
  • A policy demand floor. A national free-nutritious-meals programme budgeted at about $20B, with roughly $5.3B spent by May 2026, puts a structural support under poultry demand that prior down-cycles lacked.
  • What keeps skeptics honest. CPIN's share of that spend is undisclosed, capex is accelerating into the strength, and a smaller peer still booked a FY2025 loss — the recovery rewards scale, it is not a rising tide.
Downside

A net-cash balance sheet cushions the trough

~$96M
Net cash position
16.5%
Return on equity, FY2025
~74%
Assets funded by equity
0
Loss years, FY2020–FY2025
Net cash means enterprise value sits below the market cap — no debt drag on the multiple.
  • Built to outlast a down-cycle. Roughly $96M of net cash and equity funding about three-quarters of assets let a price-taker absorb a two-to-three-year trough and keep investing and paying dividends through it.
  • Quality inside the leader. A 16.5% return on equity, no loss year across the cycle, and earnings that convert to cash — the strongest facts for reading the shares as a durable market leader, not a cheap cyclical.
  • But the book is cyclical too. Biological assets and inventories are about 36% of total assets, valued on the same chicken and feed prices that drive the spread — a downturn would press the operating result and the book at once.
Scenarios

Cheap, fair, or dear — the spread decides which

Scenario fair value ($ per share)
At $0.17 the shares sit near the mid-cycle midpoint; the payoff skews to the upside if the spread holds.
  • The base case is roughly today. On mid-cycle EPS of $0.013–0.017 at 12–13x, fair value is about $0.15–0.20 — the ~33% de-rating repriced the stock from the peak toward the average, not to a discount.
  • Upside if the record is a base. If FY2025 efficiency holds and the meals-programme demand shows through, $0.23–0.29 brackets the ~$0.27 street consensus — the bull case, and where analysts sit.
  • Downside is real but cushioned. If oversupply returns and the downstream reverts to loss, book value near $0.11 puts the shares around $0.12–0.14 — about 19–32% below spot, floored by net cash and the feed base.
What to watch

The record is real and cash-backed; whether it is a base or a peak stays the open question.

Read the full report →

This distills a guided study built chapter by chapter — the statements, the segments, the cycle, and what the price now implies.

Compiled from the full report · 2026-07-16 · For information, not investment advice.